MALAWI ECONOMY HAS NOT RECOVERED.

By: Magede Si Wandale.

Freshly we have heard the Peoples Party zealots and clappers with their pompous loud mouths claiming that Malawi’s economy has recovered owing to the positive reception of Kwacha on the Foreign Market as well as the reduction of the fuel prices on pump. This alone doesn’t warranty a developing country as Malawi that we have recovered from the economic hardship we are going through by stressing on the admiration of Kwacha and the reduction of fuel price single-handedly. Neither the purchase of 50 orange pickups by the well wishers nor the minister’s prados proves it all that we have recovered.

To my perceptive as an observer Magede Si Wandale, economic recovery is not alone tackling or audacity in political rallies across Malawi about the charisma of fuel and Forex but also a period of increasing business activity signaling the end of an economic depression. Much like a downturn, an economic recovery is not always easy to recognize until at least several months after its implementation which has really been the case with Malawi in the accomplishment of the Economic Recovery Plan <ERP>.

As Malawians, there are a number of economic indicators to be well thought-out if our country has recovered economically which includes:

• High  levels of growth in real Gross Domestic Product
•  Inflation rate ,
• Corporate profits
• Employment
• High income per capital
• Stock  market as stocks are priced based on future expectations
• Regaining of financial markets
• low  unemployment  level
• improved living standards among the Majority of the populace
• improvement in social services and other indicators

These indicators are put in place to analyze the state of the economy and determine whether a recovery is in progress, it’s really very funny for Malawians to be clapping hands that our economy is on track before considering the above mentioned indicators with only the presence of Fuel and Forex.

SIGNS OF NON-ECONOMIC RECOVERY IN MALAWI.

As a matter of fact, when Malawi’s economy will be recovered nobody will articulate to you that we have recovered but the following will prove to every Malawian whether a loyalist to the Peoples party or not, living in the urban or the remotest part of Malawi will tell by the following:

1. EMPLOYMENT

It is interesting and a mockery to Malawians for the Peoples Party to talk about an economy in recovery when Malawians who lost their jobs are not getting back to the work they lost recently. It’s funny to talk of recovery when “jobless recoveries" has not yet been done. If Malawi’s economy had recovered there would be enough economic activity to get businesses moving again for every Malawian and not the Party bootlickers.

2. CONSUMER SPENDING

Whether the Peoples Party like it or not but for better or worse, the Malawi’s economy is driven by consumer spending. Consequently, it is so funny and difficult to imagine a recovery in Malawi’s that does not include rebounding consumer spending. A recovering economy will see Many Malawian consumers opening their wallets and paces as a sign of a recovery.

3. Consumer Sentiment

The Peoples Party recovery of Malawi’s economy is nothing effective without having a baseline survey across Malawi to ask people how they feel about the economy in near-term and their own individual or family prospects not just someone waking up and proclaim that Malawi’s economy has recovered  when Malawians are still impoverishing with poverty. Malawians should have a self-fulfilling prophecy of the economic recovery for themselves at all the levels.

4. Business Indicators

Malawian consumers should be able to appreciate and feel about the economy is all well and good methodology to preach the message of recovery not when we hear of recovery and in the same place the ESCOM increasing the tariff with 100% , Economic recovery must be  matched by optimism and expansion in the business community.

5. Bank Lending

While Malawi’ public companies <parastatals>are not entirely dependent upon banks to grow their businesses, most small non-public businesses are. Without banks underwriting new loans, small businesses do not grow, and without that growth it is difficult to see higher employment and a stable recovery. Of what significance does it make to a Malawian Business man who is not able to lend from the bank when yet the message of recovery is all over?

Malawi’s Economic recovery will mean:

·         increasing production,

·          increasing consumption (or savings),

·         Increasing employment, and increasing activity in areas like construction and transportation.

 By keeping a careful eye on whether businesses are preparing for growth, whether consumers feel comfortable about spending, and whether money and goods are moving through the economy, Malawians  can get a sense of whether the next recovery is real otherwise we have not recovered.